The Structural Geology of the Alpine Fault: the Scientific picture 4. Scientists have dug trenches across the fault here … At this locality you can see the surface trace of the Alpine Fault running across some grassy river terraces. It suggests that when the Alpine Fault moves, it most likely moves in large jumps of several metres and that this occurs in big earthquakes. It last ruptured in 1717 and there is a big earthquake, on average, about every 300 years, but the times vary so there is thought to be about a 30% risk of the next ‘Big One’ in the next fifty years. Our Knowledge of the Alpine Fault: due to Technological Innovation 3. Indeed, the land traversed by the fault is consid­ered more likely than anywhere else in the country to experience a large earthquake in the foreseeable future. The Alpine Fault last got seriously testy in 1717 or thereabouts and before that, in descending order, 1620, 1430 and 1100. This early scientific experiment shows us that the Alpine Fault does not move gradually – there has been no slow fault movement at this site. The Alpine Fault is overdue for an earthquake that could reshape the South Island, scientists say. A wall was built across the fault here in the early 1960s to see if there was gradual slip along the fault. Big Alpine Fault rupture due in the next century or two The Alpine Fault is a big feature of South Island geography and seismic activity. 4 Appendix 1, WCRC Natural Hazards Resource Kit, Revised February 2012, M Trayes 1. Future Earthquake Predictions – based on all of the above. The fault line is where the Eurasian … Based on past trends, one would have to say that the Alpine Fault is due—and maybe overdue—for another major earthquake. To date, the strongest paleoseismic eviden The next Alpine Fault earthquake would likely also be a long-duration event – unzipping the crust for as much as three minutes - because of the sheer length of the fault. The Work of Pioneering Geologists MC: Mount Cook (3764 m), the highest point of the Southern Alps; SWFZ: South Westland Fault Zone. The Alpine Fault is shown by a heavy line; lighter lines are other faults thought to be active in the Quaternary. Due to restrictions of scale, faults shown are somewhat generalised in order to show style and distribution of Quaternary deformation. The Alpine Fault is believed to align with the Macquarie Fault Zone in the Puysegur Trench off the southwestern corner of the South Island. The Alpine fault is a high slip‐rate plate boundary fault that poses a significant seismic hazard to southern and central New Zealand. Waimakariri District Council media release: 10th November 2020. The uplift to the southeast of the fault is due to an element of convergence between the plates, meaning that the fault has a significant high-angle reverse oblique component to its displacement. North Canterbury residents will have a chance to hear from leading natural hazard scientist, Professor Tom Wilson of University Of Canterbury about the impacts and consequences of a future magnitude 8 earthquake along the Alpine Fault, and how people can become better prepared for it. The Alpine Fault runs right through the heart of New Zealand's glacier county on the country's south island. 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